Charles, with this health care bill. I think there will be a lot of companies will be laying off alot of people because of higher taxes,I also think alot of our companies wll be moving out of the USA and going to cheaper countries to set up business.The dollar is going to take a deeper dive when all of these stupid ideals of our government takes place.I think all americans should start buying gold and silver coins to protet themselves from the paper money here and around the world.I know China is requiring their workers to invet 5% or 10% in gold and silver.Charles just imagine if we could get 2 or 3 million people to buy and hold 10 ounces of real silver per month what [not paper silver or paper gold] the price of silver would be in 2 or 3 years. Sincerely Andrew Hughes

Funny you just asked this question as I just sent out a warning signal below to my small group of Investor’s Club members consisting of mainly Family and Friends who have benefited big time in the Past 2-3 years:
“I know most of you are Long Term focused Investors.
If I were you, I would be either taking and /or protecting any profits I have made on The Longside.
Yes, the main US indices have made yet another new high for the year, and they may still make one more new high!
Yes, we just last week got a Major Theoretical Buy signal based on The Dow Theory when the Dow Industrials confirmed the high above January of the Dow Transports. However, The Dow Utilities (considered the safest dividend paying stocks) are way below and are in fact the weakest and breaking down further. This is not the sign of another Bull Market. And The Buy signal could be soon negated.
At the same time there are many Countries and Sectors which are still below their January highs. And in fact many are still below their highs made all the way back in July/August 2009. Some of these are and will be The Leaders to The Long Term Downside (still expected to last till 2014-2016).
And some of these finally will be excellent and Real Long Term Buys when their present correction is completed much before 2014 (maybe this year!). Let me know if you are interested in knowing The Winners when the time comes.
These are signs of a Major topping (consolidation in some cases) process. The easy money on the upside in The Intermediate Term has already been made from March2009 to August2009/January2010. The time to really buy for the Intermediate Term was in March 2009. Most markets/sectors have now recovered between 38% to 50% to 62% (even as high as the 77% level in case of The Nasdaq). Between 50-62% is the normal retracement in a Bear Market Rally. Some have not even retraced the minimum expected 38% which signifies extreme weakness.
Any further upside since The last high is being made on “Reserve Fuel” which will not last long, and when it ends, if not already, The fall should be “surprising” to most.
The same happened in the topping process in the past and recently in 2007/2008 when different Indices topped out at different times before they finally ALL capitulated together..and The Majority “surprisingly” lost big.
Our focus should now be in preserving capital, or if capable, in making money on the downside.
Our focus now is in identifying the Tops (agree not an easy but essential task, and we have successfully done so in the past). We have to be aware of subsequent break of significant support levels, rather than trying to eek out any small upside gains if at all existing.”

THe next subrprime waave of defaults are on the way to the
banks so is th eUS government going to bail them out again
or find a closet to place the baD LOANS.

THE DIFICULT TIMES AR ENOT OVER BY A LONG SHOT.

I just stayed with the good old USA and did not bail out. I doubled my investment in the S&P 500 and now I,m less than 30% down.

Near the end of January I pulled everything out of stocks and bonds and moved it into cash. I am not happy with that position, but I am still down 25% form the fall of 2008. I am retired and do not want to lose more. I just do not trust this rally.

Just getting back in to investing. I am still studying the situation. I’m using Motley Fool as my guideposts for my own research.
I’m VERY concerned. Any time I hear, “I’m from the government and I’m here to help you” I put my hand on my wallet.
I’ve always been a long term investor and a contrarian. I could use more information to help me understand how to operate in a down market.

I did what the majority didn’t do and stayed in mutual funds. I am now down approx. 9%, I was like most people, down approx. 40%. Most people do not trust the powers to be anymore and are confused. This is sad, because this was part of the American dream, to retire and supplement your savings with investments. The big question now is, do we get out now and preserve our capital?

It was clear by april 09 what the game plan was .
Without seemingly strong banks we don’t have a chance to borrow and build the future > therefore use every tool in goverments power to do just that . If anyone thinks that the goverment cares for the people they are foolish . Down the road we will all pay for this with higher taxes and infilation . Goverment had no choice to do this ..as the problem was too big for market forces to sort out . Market’s are clearly overvalued because of the junk stocks run , companies that are doing well havent made any gains . Retail doing well because most people not paying their mortgages , close to 20 percent of homeowners are upside down …we need infilation out of this mess …its the only choice .
It’s always hard to do the right thing .
If you can afford to borrow money , take as much as they are willing to lend you
Buy real companies with increasing sales , pricing power and brand power .
Short bonds
long natural commodities and materials
long india , brazil , canada , japan
if close to retirement move out of this country asap
to avoid the higher taxes and infilation , CAUSE… next few years aint gonna be pretty .

There is some rumor to the effect that the government has been manipulating this market-if this is true than how long can they hold it up? Another rumor is that foreign countries are buying into the US stock market instead of buying US treasuries(particularly China). One of the situations that bothers me is what the government is doing to the value of the dollar. My question is which is losing value faster the dollar or stocks-in other words are investors thinking that having their capital in stocks is a better bet than having it in cash(stocks will still lose value but to lessor extent than cash and the current return is better). So many articles that I have read state that many corporations have more cash on hand now than in the past(corporate balance sheets are in good condition-result is why we are seeing the M@A activity-putting the cash to work-do they realize that the cash is losing value?). Due to the situation with the debt of the countries of the world are we looking at a world currency-some type of breakdown in currencies is warranted-it is just when and how it will happen and how cash will be converted to the new currency versus how stocks will be valued. At this point it is really hard to know what to do with cash-I do not like real estate because I think it will be taxed to the point of no return-I can see the government owning most real estate which at this point they hold alot of the debt on real estate. Japan got by for years with the debt it issued-can the US do the same???? I would like to see some really good discussion on how the demise of a currency or currencies relates to the value of stocks versus the value of said currencies(which is the best place for capital regardless of the ups and downs of the market-if you are a good market timer fine-I am not).

defeated by the diverse info from many advisors selling their product so i have stayed with 2 mutual funds for 30 years T Rowe Price equity income amdVanguard Windsor . rode them up and down — i realize i have lost oppertunity to make money over the years . Matt

Charles,
I just started investing and I get lost in some of the long emails I receive from Penny Stock Chaser, Cool Penny Stocks, Motly Fool, Penny Sleuth, Smart Trend, etc. They all want me to spend more money to learn their insights. I am a very small investor and I do not have the money to invest in Microsoft, Google, etc. I am watching the penny stocks up through $5.00. Where should I start? I need to understand the “jargon” of the stock market. I am new at this and would like to learn more from someone willing to teach me at an entry level. To answer your question, Yes, I am out here and I just read your email. Jan

I made a few good buys but characteristically I just put my toe in the water. I did not have the confidence to invest sufficiently.

Martin

The MARKET will depend on what our ‘disfuntional gov’ does.
Now 75, I’m finally learning that they always do the WRONG things for US and the right things for THEIR pocketbooks & votes.

This stock market rally is solely government induced by the government. Its payed for with money it doesn’t have. The growth in earnings by most companies have been made by downsizing and profits overseas. We sold our working class down the river by sending our jobs overseas. I don’t blame the business for do this. Companies are suppose to maximize their profits. The stockholders buy a company to make money for them. I blame the politicians that didn’t put tariffs in place to give the American worker a level playing field. The bottom line the quality of life will be diminished. The stock market crash is coming. Read Martin Weiss reports. He is correct. His timing has been off but the crash is coming.

my attempt to hold onto what little wealth i have was to sell big corporate and go with cooperatives. chscp

As long as the market does it’s sea-saw, anyone can make money. Sell short, sell long. It doesn’t make a killing, but its a week’s salary for a week’s worth of work. I’m facinated by the policy changes in selling short. I’ll be watching closely as Obama tries to regulate Wall Street. I understand the neccessity of selling short, but, I feel the big boys need to be regulated in the area of short selling. Personally, I don’t find the increase in the Dow Jones to be based on any equity growth. And, thus speculative growth is still just a shell game (as usual.)

One month to go! After that we should be in a downtrend for a long period of time, maybe a year or longer. Commodities should trend lower in April. Gold will start rising in May with a top sometime in August. Let’s see where we go from here. Be ready for a wild ride and forget long term investing!

For the past year or so, I have looked only at those investments offering a high yield and in a sector bound to do OK whatever happened to the market.

In my search, I zeroed in on the MLP sector. Luckily, I found several in the oil and gas industry. Then I found out which ones were really making money from extracting oil and gas, not exploring for it. Then I looked for those with long lived reserves and had a demonstrated record of successful hedging. I came up with three.
They are LINN Energy (LINE) Markwest Energy (MWE) and Encore Enegry (ENP).

I bought them near their bottoms all three yielding about 14-15% on their quarterly distributions, and hedged for at least three years with at least 15-20 years of reserve production in place.

I have done quite well. In addition to getting my 14-15% tax advantaged distributions, I have enjoyed watching each of them appreciate about 100% from where I bought them.

As I think that oil and gas will continue to rise in price over the next decade, I plan to sit tight, collect my distributions, sell near term covered options against my positions and relax.

That’s it for me for some time to come.

My investments are mostly in ETF’s, a few mutual funds, and a couple of stocks. As of February I was up exactly 73% from my March lows. While I feel like I have a very good balance in my portfolio I started investing only 7 years ago, in my 40′s. This decade has not been the best decade to get started in. My funds are diversified in gold, ETF index funds in Brazil, China, India, ETF’s in restaurants, entertainment, international real estate, and mutual funds in Hong Kong, oil, and Janus Orion. I would like to know if I am doing anything wrong, and how I can maximize returns. I plan on staying fully invested and buying on the way down.

Too much debt to ever pay back, even more now with health care. Think about it taxes can’t be raised enough to ever pay back debt and too high of taxes will cause civil unrest. The dollar must go much much lower, China and Japan are already reducing their dollar holdings, they are our bankers… interest rates must sky rocket.

So many homes underwater, from a business perspective better to walk away than keep paying, this makes the problems worse day by day, called a spiral… Housing is going down big time from here. Commercial real-estate, I don’t know how they have been able to smoke and mirror this to not have had a catastrophe yet? Look around so much empty space, someone is taking huge losses here? This too will be passed on to the public.

Baby boomers, and health care, this is a genocide project in disguise, too many will become needing the medicare and social security they have paid their whole working life, but the gov stole it… so the answer is let them die, don’t provide the health care to them… Sorry but Wall Street is heartless, they have made their money on this generation, and now are quite done with them, time
to leave the party.

Our foreseeable future is very bleak, hope things will turn but expect 5 to 10 years of pretty hard times. Invest in things that will go up as the dollar goes down, minimize your dollar holdings and try to preserve capitol with a majority of your positions. Maybe go short commercial real-estate and housing. Perhaps foreign markets India, China where there is some true growth… We are screwed for a while, I just hope it is not the end of America as we know it, but I fear our time may be over and we will be going by the way of France.

Short term thinking is for the human animal called “man.”
Solving aging and finding away to at least two earth-type planets outside this solar system would be better for long term profitability, not to say life. Why two planets? One would be for those who kill others; those that want to kill others and cannot, but attempt to do so anyway and for those who commit crimes in accordance with a “universal acceptance” by the majority of people on earth, meaning it cannot have any religious overtones and must contain “common sense” [if there is such a thing].

Charles, I have reverted in principle to the old standards of selection of an 18 month stock to sell as it turns. Put back the old buffers of ½ % cushion for sell and buy prices and gambled on the areas I know best. Over the last year I have resurged and gained grounds in dividend stocks and kept my portfolio well balanced and have maintained between 15 and 30 % speculative stock purchases and sells. My margin has gone from 0 to 20%. I am fully loaded at 15 to 20% margin levels. So far so good. Reardy for bear and currently hunting.
Pat

I think if everyone would start buying american products and invest in america ,we would start becoming the country that we were!! The govt/ should start by cutting exspenses and be more concerned about USA THEN IRAQ AND AFGANISTAN… I also agree with the elimination of saturday mail delivery ,it will cut expenses and reduce fuel usage!

Today the stock market does not seem like investing but more like gambling. The institutional trading on the up and down side in a milisecond of billions of shares is actually causing market directions. So we have traders that are capable of turning the direction and since you can now make as much money going down as up there is no reason to stay for the “long”term. We (as investors) are guessing while traders are manipulating.
Then you have the Fed devaluing the dollar to cut our debt. It seems to me they want you to invest in stocks with the yield of money market funds and cds so low because they make money in taxes after you trade. So they keep the rate at zero percent so we actually lose money if we stay in cash. More manipulation.
The time is set for dividend return investing. Whether that is bonds or high yield funds. Stay out of the casino.

Charles: I could say I did not miss the rally as I invested during the stock market crash of 09. Today, I continue to seek quality dividend paying companies that I could add my portfolio.

rsmith :
Charles: I could say I did not miss the rally as I invested during the stock market crash of 09. Today, I continue to seek quality dividend paying companies that I could add my portfolio.

Charles: I could say I did not miss the rally as I invested during the stock market crash of 09. Today, I continue to seek quality dividend paying companies that I could add to my portfolio.

Generally speaking, I ignore the market. I only try
and buy cheap stocks. If I believe we are at at “extreme”, then I pay attention to the market.
We were at an extreme in Feb 09 – that’s when I started
buying high quality, cheap equities heavily.

IMHO, we are not at an extreme now – no bubbles, etc.
Stock are not cheap, nor are they expensive – so the
market indexes are on ignore for me.

If I can find a few additional “cheap” stocks, like
Charles points our – I’ll be able to weather the
townturn or participate in the continued rally.

Fortuna,

buy only high paying divident stock and stay with it ,who cares if stock loses some.I find it better than cash under my mattress or in any bank usually run by way over payed,over weight so and sos .
Disgusted.

Using your resources to find and advise what companies have exception future prospects would be helpful. There are lots of Canadian mining companies which appear good but you have sort of the hype from the facts.
Advance warning of a down turn would also be great. I think that another recession is coming, because too many good jobs have been shipped over seas.
Regarding the so called Free Trade:

I say so called because countries do not adhere to definition of the words. For example the US puts fines on Canada for cheaper lumber than they can produce. Since Canada appears to have about 20 % of it land that is not good for anything else, therefore, this should be expected as normal. On the other hand they have allowed China to devastate their manufacturing sector.
I am a 1952 Ryerson graduate and was part of Avro Arrow project and after that went on to design truck trailers, aluminum components, and aluminum ladders. My field was product, tool and machine design. In 1984 I won Canadian Machinery and Metalworking magazine’s gold award for a ladder assembly machine I designed. The design of products also involved cost estimates.
Some of products from China they are selling here at barely above our material cost. There is a dollar store near by which has about 70% low value items but there are small tools and kitchen utensils from China which in a regular hardware store would cost $5 to $9, selling for $1 Canadian which is only $.93 US. When you consider the shipping costs, the retailers market up the $1 price is fantastic. There has to be Chinese government support in order to make it possible.
Lately the there has been government recognition about the value of higher salary manufacturing jobs in their effort to save auto manufacturing jobs. However they have let hundreds of other companies go under in many other manufacturing sectors, such as consumer electronics. Unfortunately politicians have never looked in a dollar store, but should be aware of what is going on in other sectors.
Recently in a local hardware I saw wood flooring from China. The wood capital of the world has to import flooring? That has got to be the last straw. In the US drywall for China was found to be giving off toxic fumes which corroded copper pipes, however most products from China are good quality. The problem is that they are obviously subsidized and unfair competition.
A friend has a small high precision machine shop in Vermont. They were making some delicate stainless steel parts for dialysis machines. The company they were producing for started buying them from China. Again the Chinese price was close to the material costs. However they found some of them were defective so they got his company to inspect the parts. The inspection costs more than the Chinese price but was still cheaper than they could make the parts.
The actual direct labor in most products is a small fraction of the total cost. When you get your car repaired at a dealership the labor charge is usually $100
or more an hour, while the mechanic would get in the order of $20/hr. The difference is mostly overhead and a small amount of profit. I got the direct labor in a 6 ft. stepladder that was selling for $30 down to 12 minutes including all parts. Auto final assembly is about 1 hour, not including the parts. So the main incentive for shipping jobs overseas is not the direct labor, it is the lower overheads, consisting of taxes, utilities, medical care, insurance, facility costs, support staff and executives etc. The figures mentioned in the US for medical liability are 30%. Some small ladder companies in the US have gone out of business because of the high liability costs.
The unions here have sometimes been difficult but the poor examples set by the top executives with multimillion salaries don’t help. Through stock options
some were encouraged to ship jobs overseas to lower costs, and increase stock values.
Japan is fair competition as compared to China. Their labor is higher class
and the working conditions are good, but they don’t have the high liability, overhead and executive costs we do.
In order to offset the large number manufacturing jobs lost, housing and other construction was encouraged by mainly the US government and also Canada. I have first hand experience in FL. What happened there was that housing was going up by 3% a month in 04 & 05. About 30% of buyers in SW Florida were speculators who could put a small payment down, did some cosmetic fix ups then sold a few months later for a profit like 12% or more on a $250,000 house that they only cost $5000 down. When things started to level and go down slightly in early 06 most of the speculator housing came on the market. This large number immediately reduced prices further, and then those who had purchased homes to live in were faced with mortgages larger than what they paid. Prices were falling 30% a month. Besides the misguided government policy it was the speculators who precipitated the sharp decline.
The result of this was a source good paying jobs was dried up. The governments are trying to start this up again along with infrastructure jobs. The problem is that so many jobs have been shipped over seas and even if these jobs use foreign materials it is not going to work.
Manufacturing is far reaching in its spread of benefits throughout the community. The machinists, tool makers etc. take 10 years to train after grade 8. Plus the equipment that use they will have disappeared due to misuse will also take time to replace.
Of course there are exceptions of companies that have found a spot
where through special skills and ingenuity have found a way to prosper. But in general most cannot compete with the ultra low and fictitious costs from China.
Due the foregoing I do not see economy improving for a considerable length of time.
I realize the intent was to help the poor countries raise their standard of
living, but if the richer countries cannot afford their goods even with the lower prices. The situation is unsustainable.

Bob R.

My belief is that the stock market has or is near a top for this rally and will make a 20-30% correction. My belief stems from the following;
1) The rally has been based upon low volumes, indicating that the growth is fueled by the large investment and mutual fund companies.
2) Corporate earnings are supported by layoffs and cutbacks with limited to no top line revenue growth.
4) The $780B stimulus plan is focused on social change and paybacks to campaign contributors.
5) Potential default of many of the EU nations and efforts by China to slow their economy and focus internally will limit the few export opportunities available.
6) Rising state and federal taxes will force more companies to relocate to low cost countries, increasing unemployment.
7) The govenment energy policies, penalizing the coal companies i.e. our cheapest energy sourcce, failing to develop our domestic oil industry and the buracraccy barriers to timely reinstatement of Nuclear Energy will dramtically increase energy prices and reduce energy supply to all remaining manufacturing companies, reducing employment.
Increasing state and federal taxes, high unemployment, rising residential and commercial loan defauts and FEAR will limit consumer spending.

Most importantly, our current government is focused on social change, redistribution of wealth and leveling the economic playing field globally.

Outlook:
1) 2010-20-30% market correction in the first half and flat to steady decline in the second half on rising loan defaults and high unemployment.
2) 2011-Flat to steady decline in the first half, substantial decline in the second half, declining dollar. Double Dip Depression. Rising soverign defaults.
3) 2012- Potential US default,chaos leading up to the US Presidential election will force markets to retreat, precious metals will soar.

Investment Actions:
1) Reducing domestic investment limited to companies in government favor, technology and staples.
2) Increasing investment in select infrastructure and commodity companies in China, Brazil and India.
3) 30% of my portfolio in cash and precious metals.
4) Steady investment in foreign currencies.

janbil :
This stock market rally looks real. Although trying to predict the future is difficult, stocks should provide the best return over the coming years.
Basically we’ve been buying high quality stocks when they are trading at a discount to their underlying business.

FORTUNA :
Fortuna,
buy only high paying divident stock and stay with it ,who cares if stock loses some.I find it better than cash under my mattress or in any bank usually run by way over payed,over weight so and sos .Disgusted.

I am 66 and retiring this year without a Company pension. My portfolio consisted of about 50% equity when it was decimated by the Stock Market crash of 2002. Since then I have been invested heavily in fixed income securities with only 20% in equity. I was gun shy to re-invest in the Stock Market in 2008-9 despite my gut feeling that recovery would take place. I am surprised at the rate of recovery; now I suspect another recession or collapse is imminent, so I still hesitate to re-invest till the next crash occurs! Decisions, decisions.
Ishwar

I am not a professional analyst, but it seems to me that the risks to the market will come from additional waves of mortgage and credit card defaults, and especially unpredictable geopoliticval events relating to Iran. With respect to the geopolitical concern, it does not appear that Iran will respond in a favorable way to diplomaticc initiatives which means that the likelihood of an Israeli strike will increase over time. In the event that Israel does stike Iranian nuclear facilities, it is clear that the price of oil will rise dramatically because Iran will almost certainly strike Saudi oil facilities. The conflagration will expand because Hizbollah and Hamas will strike Israel as Iranian proxies and Iran will launch missiles into Israel directly and possibly at US naval and other military targets targets in the Persian Gulf. There will be a period of great uncertainty as the US weighs the possiblity of directly attacking Iran. Such a grave crisis would drive up the price of oil, gold and industrial metals, US Treasuries, and possibly the dollar as the equity markets take a big hit. My advice is to build cash, diversify and take wise positions that would be impacted favorably by an increased price of oil, and gold in particular. US Treasuries and the dollar could also present opportunities. Equity trades should focus on value, diversification and the potential to hold positions for a long time.

There will be no serious second dip in this recovery. Even if it dips, it will recover fast. I think it is the best to invest and hold in solid multi-national stocks.
China, India and Brasil + many mid-size Asian countries like Thailand are locomotives to pull world economy now.
US,EU and Japan are not growth engine anymore. US’s big trade deficit and enourmous Fed-printed greenbucks are essencial rubricant to support emerging markets’ growth,
since there is still no alternative to US greenbuck as international currency. World need that. It helps US government, too. US government’s huge fiscal deficit is absorbing back some greenbacks from the world in form of treasury bond. Thus, twin US deficits are quite nicely fit in current world economy at this moment. But it is until emerging markets exhaust its growth. Its end is not in near future. New norm for US stocks is 80% of last peak. Multi-nationals’ norm will be much higher. There is still some room to go up for multi-nationals’ stock.
My conclusion is no second dip this year, but may be some adjustment to reach platau in next year.

would love an analysis of the impact of the health bill on the healthcare sector. SK

I am encouraged by the slow trend upward. I cannot say how long it will last but I believe that there are certain stocks that will perform just by the nature of their business/product/service. I do not have much money to work with and have found Penny stocks to be intriguing. The ones I am in are the Social Media stocks(blogging/BLGW,socialnetworking/CRWG)and fashion industry/LYJN. I believe because these are dependant on people doing things in their everyday life whether or not they have a ton of money,they will have growth. While these type of stocks are only cents to get into they have a good “bang for the buck” appeal and if those who have some big stocks want to diversify a little more,it won’t cost a lot and certainly any loss would be minimal. In my opinion for the companies I’ve researched and chosen the only direction is up!

I am happy with Eaton Vance and Oppenheimer and wish I had more of the same

SOME OF THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES ARE IN CERTAIN OIL & GAS PRODUCERS WHO ARE DEVELOPING THEIR INVESTMENTS IN LEASES IN THE BAKKEN SHALE IN NORTH DAKOTA, SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA. NORTH DAKOTA HAS LEPT TO BECOME A LARGER OIL & GAS PRODUCER THAN LOUISIANA. WE USED TO LEND MONEY TO A VARIETY OF INDPENDENT OIL & GAS DEVELOPERS IN THE EARLY 1980′S WHO WERE WORKING TO FIND GOOD HYDROCARBON FORMATIONS IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW WERE SUCCESSFUL, BUT MANY WERE NOT. THEY WERE NOT EXPLOITING THE RIGHT FORMATIONS, BUT NOW WE HAVE DEVELOPERS WHO REALLY ARE!!! NOW, WE NEED MORE PIPELINES TO BRING THESE SUPPLIES TO MARKETS.

A LOT OF MONEY IS GOING TO BE MADE AS BIG OIL FINDS OUT ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON AND BEGINS TO BUY OUT THESE INDEPENDENT PRODUCERS TO LOCK UP THEIR OIL LEASE PROPERTIES. MANY NORTH DAKOTA LANDOWNERS HAVE BECOME RICH OVERNIGHT BY LEASING THEIR MINERAL AND OIL DRILLING RIGHTS. A GREAT STORY REMAINS TO BE TOLD HERE!!!!

I’m no expert (by far!) so please take my comments with a grain of salt. My lay opinion: the rally may continue as long as the Fed continues its ultra low rates and as long as people remain optimistic about the market. However, I believe a number of things could trigger a correction at any time: profit-taking, a sovereign debt default anywhere in the world, a pattern of weak Treasury auctions, war, or any major downturn in the US economy. I just read an email that referred to a memo written by John Templeton before his death who predicted much of what we’re seeing in the market now and who opined that finding safety would not be easy. No clear strategy has emerged that I have seen that provides a path to safety. It seams that hedging against inflation is equal but opposite to hedging against deflation. Hold cash against deflation but how secure are the banks? Hold gold and commodities against inflation, how do we know those prices won’t collapse if there is no inflation and any worldwide recession that reduces demand for commodities. Anybody out there with a crystal ball, please let me know!

BURT
HERE ARE SOME OF THE STOCKS I INVESTED IN BNXR ECOB GELV WWPW HENC USOG IVAN MDCE FWTC I’M NOT MAKING ANY MONEY ON THESE STOCKS THEY ALL SOUND VERY GOOD AM I ON THE WRONG TRACK!!

What do YOU think of this stock market rally? Bogus-Sell
The Market(DJIA) needs to retrace to 8400 but since it always overdoes it 7800 is likely. Scaled buying of dividend stocks starting at 9000 is a good idea. The government has screwed up the rhythm of the market. Did it save GM or Chrysler from Bankruptcy? Ford lost $4.65 Billion selling Volvo and $3.4 Billion selling Jaguar and Land Rover.
Sell what you’ve got and Sell Short when it starts going down. You’ll not get better capital gains taxes.

What have you been doing to protect your wealth and increase your net worth in this market?
I’ve been and will continue trading commodity futures.
No corrupt CEOs, CFOs, Loss-Hiding Partnerships, wrong side-of-the-market overdone derivatives with no underlying intrinsic value, or same-side as their market position non-hedging BANKS and BANK/BROKERAGES to worry about. Sadly, Merrill use to be a successful, INDEPENDENT Bond Broker not a mortage company who’s part of Bank of America. Manage your own wealth Merrill.

Hi Charles,

I have been trying to locate you so I could attend a value meeting with Charlie Munger.

I think we are in a beartrap. Last year I am up 47%. 64% last 12 months. Last 5 years, 4.7 compound.

What do you think of this market?

Cliff Roth

OK Charles:

As a financial advisor who essentially fired the b/d and FINRA 5 years ago(NASD then) for incompetence, lying(like many politicians and Tiger!)and cheating, you will not be surprised to hear that my clients who did what I suggested between then and late 2007 are as happy as clams: 5-6% with no tax and no downside sounds pretty good over the last 2 years. Also, a 50 or 60% return in the last year doesn’t sound so good when the 100 you had in mid 08 dropped to 50 in Mar 09: i.e. 60% on the 50 doesn’t look like I’m back to my original 100!! Simple math but we seem to like hype better. Interesting comments from your readers which seem to support this reality.

Now to your second question. I will purely mention housing market problems; 500 more FDIC insured banks going under; Commercial real estate defaults; PIIGS; China’s coming bubble bursting and finally those darstedly CDS bets which were at about $60T+ in 07 when the world economy ran on $72T+ or -???!! Do I need to say more despite the fact that there is. Roger.

Rick
Started investing in the stockmarket in June 2009 was up 30% by Jan 2010 when I lost all my profits. Am now up 15% and want to hold on to my profits this time.

What is going to be the hottest penny stock. Have you ever played CLL (connacher Oil and Gas) on the TSX?

@Bruce
There are many better places to get FREE Good Info.
Seeking Alpha FREE is just one.
I do OK just on the Free info.
Stock Gumshoe.com (Free) does a good job of exposing
newsletters that pump nonsense. Saved me from
subscription to many and saved $$$.
Do your on Free research, you will come out ahead.
I personally can not afford to lose thousands on bets.
Hope this helps you.

The economy isthe pits, I am just staying focused on a few companies that are near the top in production knowing that almost all commodities are on the rise. Try Bexp for size there is a huge power base pushing it up.

@David Crain
Hi David: You should not be buying on the way down, Have you ever learned how to short the market? Sell short and then Buy to cover?

Hi Charles, It is hard to know what to do. The market seems to be going up, but I am not sure I can tell you why. Seems like a whole lot of bad news is still coming?It seems like every service is trying to sell subscriptions for anywhere from $49 to $2500 per year and they all have about a 10 to 15-page proof statement as to why they should be chosen. Who has time to read that crap? I think it would be refreshing to see someone come out with a free trial without a credit card for 30 days. Then, if the results were good enough, one would be a fool not to pay a reasonable amount for investment advice. Those are my thoughts!

First of all…If you can’t touch it,see it,feel it or smell it…Good luck!

The bear market will show its color soon. Give it 30 days.Buy and hold…Good luck!

Silver was great..Buy on the dips and sell on the highs.Today I am in cash,buying real estate that will cash flow.

Charles:
I am a total nobody, nothing, investor. On Mar 10 2009 my life’s savings was in a BofA CD, $30K exactly. When the rate was going to fall from 5% to 2.5% I said, “Hogwash.” I took it all out and invested in BAC stock because I felt like it couldn’t get any worse (at ~$5). You know the rest. A month later I sold all, put the $30K back in a BofA CD at 2.5%, sent the government a check for $7K and bought another $25K of BAC at ~$13. Now I am gonna wait til a year is up sometime in June and get out. I need to buy a house. For guys like me, dumb luck and a desire to buck the system can pay off. Otherwise, up til then (and since then) I had mostly only lost money on securities. How do you “Big Guys” do it?

I’m a small invester. I have increased my investment by
30% this year. I think things are going south here if this second wave of bank troubles happen.I don’t think the market furture looks good.Washington has lost it.??

Things keep improving in the right direction everywhere, we may see corrections mainly during next summer, but the overall trend is up, no doubt about. Also the rest of the world that counts is doing very well excepting a couple of peripherical european countries. I will keep buying selectively evry time there is a temporarily “low”

Good day Charles. I have an opportunity for yourself and your readers, that I think you might be interested in. It is definately undervalued. The company is Valdor Technology, VTI tsx-v. They have done 10 years of r&d developing a product that is second to none, and is in the hands of the leading companies in many fields; aerospace, military, medical, oil & gas, and mining. It has been tested by Lockheed, (news on website) recently, and was the only company to pass their stringent requirements. Many large orders are pending. They should be profitable within 6 months. 30 mil. shares f/d, and 65% held tightly. They have done no promotion, and have no debt. They are seeking the right people, at this time, to promote their company. This is a $3 bil. industry, which they hope to capture a substantial share, if not most of. Please take a few minutes to research this company, Valdor; and confirm what I am saying, by calling the company’s largest shareholder, and i/r person, Elston Johnston, 604-813-8401. Thank you for your time. I hope you and your readers find this a real and serious long term opportunity/investment with strong upside potential.
Dale Patterson.

i saw the bottom of march 9-12 and the turn around, had been out since feb before that on the first of the loan insures news, waited to get back in until april, doubled my money buying F when it was near $3, sold $7.5, when i saw it was still negative on earnings but pacing upwards, the lack of volume and the continued downtrend in trading activity keeps me from doing anything but swing trading, and i am playing the financial ETFs bull and bear short term, would like to see money moive in strongly, but the uptrend cannot be ignored, but that lack of committment you mention and the lack of confidence that the weak volume show makes me think a collapse, whipsaw, or bear market could be in the offing at any time

i trust your opinions that i have gotten via e mail, but those others that email me under your aegis are not s trust worthy and i feel you are misrepresenting yourself allowing them the chance to trade on your good name and i feel personally that you have hoo dooed me by doing this and i dont appreciate it. anne hedgpeth

The days of long term investing are gone. The buy and hold fundamentals that we relied on are no longer pertinent to investing. I went into cash in Aug 2008 and then back into the markets in Feb 2009 for a very nice gain. Currently I’m sitting mostly in cash and gold, both physical and in stocks. Inflation is coming and so are the higher interest rates. There is money to be made, but not by the buy and hold method of investing that so many use. You need to be an active investor in the current economy, using short term opportunities. The storm clouds are still building and the worst is yet to come, but with it will be many opportuinties. As an investor you need to expand your investment knowledge and take advantage of other types of investing, such as shorting the markets. To be pausive in this environment could be very dangerous to your financial health.

Hi Jan,

You are wise to look for help. Do some theoretical trading on paper to get free experience without any of the risk. Test what you know before risking your hard won cask. Realize there are a lot of opinions and strategies out there. Find some actual players. Listen and take notes from as many active traders you can find. Measure the valididy of their methods by the level of their success. Find the killers. To put it bluntly, you are going to find people actively in the market willing to share success and embarrasing losses, find out intimate details like stake, what they bought, when and possibly why, to get a picture of their return on investment. Look on the bright side: everybody starts out small. Starting early is clearly a winning strategy. The first million will be your hardest won. Be an active investor. Hands on at all times. Believe in the business cycle. Study markets of the past to familiarize yourself with the possible dangers in the future. Watch for and prepare for significant downturns to cut losses to the minimun. Be ready and as mobile as possible. Get out (sell) when you have to; buy according to where you think the market is going. Avoid risky choices like penny stocks and save your jack for justifyable purchases that will produce as much profit as possible. Investing is the easiest legal way to make money there is. Good luck. N2airplanes – Wichita Ks.

We all know the market will go up. We all know the market will go down.

We just don’t know how much, or when.

Being new to this, I have a lack of understanding how to best aquire stock after I have made the decision to invest in something. When I first went to work, a person willing to invest, could rely on a knowledgable stock broker to have our best interest at heart; you invested in either the company you worked for, received dividends, stock went up split and all you had to do was hang on (and make the money to invest of course) it is all different now. My 401 K plan, sits, does not increase, the company DOES NOT match anything and the investment has decreased by the thousands with no signs of dividends or recovery. I don’t trust and need understanding of the system badly but time is limited. My day is filled up with making it. The spirit is willing, the knowledge is weak, even to make the purchase. Help would be GREATLY appreciated. Thanks, jaz

i think the market is going down